It sure does seem like there are a lot of critics out there these days, bashing any number of PBA players for their inability to convert TV appearances into titles. And statistically speaking, they've got a point. Chris Barnes has "just" 13 titles to show for his 75 career TV apps. Sean Rash hasn't won a title in four years and nine shows. Heck, even Tommy Jones, who used to be as automatic on TV as a Keurig coffee maker is only one out of his last eight - and no one saw that one because it was the Japan Cup!
Jason Belmonte won his lone title in his first TV appearance - and has gone eight straight shows without a win. Bill O'Neill made ten shows before getting his first win - then he went on a tear and won three - and now he's 0 for his last three again with a haunting split in the 10th to exit the U.S. Open last season. Mika Koivuniemi made all four major finals last year - and the moment we probably remember most is that hellacious 10-pin miss at the Open to cost him the title to Norm Duke. Mika went one-for-four in those majors last year - and had to shoot 299-268 the last two games to get that done.
What about Duke? He's clearly got TV figured out, right? Well not exactly. 34 titles in 108 appearances looks very Barnesian indeed. Plus there was that little dry spell between '83 and '91 where he went 11 shows without a win. But clearly he's had it figured out the last 10 years, right? Wrong. Between 2002 and 2006 he went four for 20.
So what gives? Why does it seem like every player sucks as soon as the TV lights are switched on? It all comes down to the odds my friends.
ONLY ONE CAN WIN
On every telecast, there can only be one champion. So when four players make it to the show, you only have a 25% chance to emerge victorious. But certainly the "better" players have better odds on TV right? It turns out no. Walter Ray Williams and Earl Anthony, the two greatest players in bowling history are 50-50 on TV.
What that means is, even if you're seeded straight into the title match, your odds are only 50-50 of emerging victorious. And for every subsequent match you have to win to get to the title, your odds decrease accordingly - so they are only 25% if you have to win two matches and just 12.5% if you have to win three. Good luck with that.
One popular argument among some players is that if they just "did away" with TV, it would be more fair and they'd have more titles. Turns out that argument is wrong too. The top title earners of all time typically have just as many wins from lower seed positions as they do from the top seed - which means if there were no TV they'd have about the same number of wins as they'd have with it - and way less money in their pockets and fans who knew who the heck they were.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS DIFFERENT
The reason the top pros are so good at bowling is that they are incredible at making adjustments. But they are most incredible when they have a little bit of time to plan out those adjustments - like between blocks of qualifying or match play. Once they've seen how a set of lanes will break down, the pros are masters at "mapping out" their strategies and improving upon their efforts the next time around.
But on TV, there are no second chances. When you make the show in Columbus on 15 year-old Brunswick Pro Anvilane on the Shark pattern on an 80-degree day in March with one high rev-rate righty, one high rev-rate lefty and a righty tweener, that is the only time you are ever going to experience those conditions. And if you don't win on it, there isn't going to be a second chance.
What that does is it puts enormous pressure on you to try and plan for - and then adjust to - any possible situation you may encounter. And there are only about 6,482 possible situations. A guy might get hot and shoot 270 at your 250 in the opening match and look invincible. And then in game two he might miss a move and shoot 170 to lose to a 180 (making you really happy, knowing you would have had at least a 90% chance of shooting a better game than that - there's those odds again!)
Or the lanes might decide to change between your 8th frame and your 10th, requiring you to make a move - right as you're about to throw one of the most important, defining shots of your career. Do you go left and slow down your speed a little or just stay where you are and try to jam one in there?
Ryan Shafer, probably the poster boy for TV victimization in the history of the PBA (four titles in 50 TV appearances) had to make that decision in the PBA World Championship a few weeks back. It didn't work out and he gave Andres Gomez a chance to win. Then the odds jumped up and bit Andres. Maybe now you might just begin to understand why Ryan was so emotional after advancing to the PBA World Championship finals on January 15th.
The point of all this is...THESE PLAYERS DON'T SUCK! These players are the best in the world and the bowling format of TV just happens to be about the most slippery and difficult environment with which any athlete will ever be forced to contend.
So, when a guy who is obviously one of the best in the world at their sport just happens to be caught with the odds against him, maybe try to show a little sympathy and cut the guy a break. That's all I'm saying.
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